A BRIEF HISTORY OF FOLLY: From the Trojan Horse to Donald Trump

and Climate Change

By George Hopkins

“Mankind has never abstained from any folly of which it was capable,” said Mark Twain, sourly summing up his view of history. He also said he “liked best those parts of history that never happened,” (a reference to the tendency of 19th century historians to invent the past as morality play, replete with nuggets like little George and his father’s cherry tree.)

History is in reality a mixed bag of success and folly, much of it owing to the mystery of dumb luck. For example, we still don’t know exactly why Europe went to war with itself in 1914, despite oceans of ink historians have spilled over World Wars I and II. But had there been no “Great War” in 1914 (we didn’t know enough yet to number them!), there would have been no World War II, no Hitler, no Stalin, and perhaps there would still be a Czar in Russia, a Kaiser in Berlin and the USS Arizona wouldn’t be a crypt beneath Pearl Harbor.

Nor can we really understand why the Trojans dragged that wooden horse inside their walls after a war which had (seemingly), driven off the Greeks. But we can guess. The Trojans knew about Greeks bearing gifts and they were warned that the smart thing to do was burn the giant horse along with any Greeks hiding inside. The priestly seer Laocoon, had prophesied what would happen, but “The Gods” sent giant snakes to devour poor Laocoon. So what were the Trojans to do then, but submit to divine will and haul the horse inside? It would not be the last time that religious credulity would lead to folly.

Such folly is the subject of the Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Barbara Tuchman’s “The March of Folly,” (1984), still in print and relevant as ever. According to some sources, Tuchman (1912-1989), might have helped prevent World War III with her best-selling and most influential book, “The Guns of August,” (1963), an account of the first month of World War I. This history of chaotic miscalculation and bad luck influenced John F. Kennedy, who feared nuclear war might erupt in much the same way. He recommended Tuchman’s book as a cautionary tale that war, once embarked upon, can spin out of control.

No one knows if Lyndon Johnson read Tuchman before taking us full “boots on ground” into Vietnam in 1965. It’s a safe bet George W. Bush never read it before invading Iraq.

Of all the sources of folly, religious mania lies beneath most. Given events in Paris, we should remember that a majority of wars in the history of Western Civilization had religious roots. Even today, religion has become a primary signifier of one of our two great political parties, despite Constitutional injunctions against “religious tests” for office. One might even postulate that the religious right so dominates the base of the Republican Party, that no candidate can be nominated who does not deny evolutionary science, assert a belief in the religious nonsense that the Earth is 6,000 years old, and profess publicly a literal belief in the Biblical story of Creation.

Which brings up “The Donald” and folly. Suppose the ultimate environmental collapse is upon us due to climate change, and mass extinction looms. Given my premise that religious mania is the most likely source of folly, which Republican President would best deal with it? A True Believer like Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, or Rick Santorum? Or a blustery, self-promoting voluptuary of a mock-tycoon (he’s apparently not as rich as he claims), with an outrageous comb-over who has obviously never had a single authentic moment of religious contemplation in his life? Would Trump be any worse than a somnolent True Believer like Ben Carson, who might well nod off during the apocalypse?

At the very least Trump would be entertaining to watch on TV as the curtain falls for all of us.

George Hopkins is Professor Emeritus of History at Western Illinois University in Macomb. He taught a class on historical folly at the university’s LIFE (Learning is Forever) program.