The ultimate just-in-time commodity, supply and demand for electricity must be immediately and precisely balanced. If a supply deficit can’t be closed rapidly, grid operators order round-robin shutoffs across all customers, i.e. “rolling blackouts” lasting hours to days depending on the shortage’s duration. During the February 2021 polar vortex, rolling blackouts lasted two or more days for millions of Texans and caused more than 700 deaths from hypothermia. Texas was only 4 minutes, 37 seconds away from total grid collapse and thus 26 million Texans without power for up to a week — longer if grid equipment was damaged. Texas narrowly dodged mass casualties.

Enter Illinois where MISO’s (Ameren’s grid operator) April 2022 auction for summer electricity fell short by 1,200 megawatts needed for peak July demand even after auction prices, 2021 to 2022, increased from $5 to $237 per megawatt hour. Ameren’s service area in Illinois had the largest supply deficit. What’s not good in 2022 is projected to be bad in 2023 (July deficit of 2,600 megawatts) and potentially worse for 2024-2027. Finally, these shortfalls are for normal operating conditions. Supply deficits jump under worst-case scenarios. The worst-case deficit for this July could be up to a whopping 17,000 megawatts (Walton). All-in-all, MISO has a “high risk of energy emergencies” (NERC).

As electricity shortages grew in California last decade, the state began increasing demand response, solar + storage, and virtual power plants. Collectively, these assets can simultaneously reduce peak demand and increase supply by releasing lots of stored solar electricity into the evening peak. Without these flexible resources, California’s massive August 2020 heatwave would have triggered lengthy shutoffs. Instead, rolling blackouts were limited to one hour per night for two evenings. In short, we have tools which, if employed quickly, could prevent or minimize potential Illinois blackouts.

So, how are we doing? Rather than ordering the fast expansion of demand response, solar + storage, etc., (California’s solution), Illinois’ Senate this March created a Grid Reliability Task Force (Senate Bill 1104) composed mostly of industry insiders, some of whom contributed to our current mess.

The state appears ready to extend that mess. After betting the “Governor” of Southern Australia that Tesla could build a 100 megawatt battery in 100 days, Elon Musk did just that. Intense Australian heatwaves were causing coal-fired plants to trip offline regularly with consequent grid emergencies and outages. Once online, Tesla’s “Big Aussie Battery” helped end emergencies and cut outage costs 40%; it eliminated huge price run-ups for stop-gap, gas-powered electricity.

Can Illinois match Australia? Under the Climate Equity & Jobs Act, passed in 2021, the Department of Commerce & Economic Opportunity will oversee installation of 111 megawatts of batteries at the former Joppa, E.D. Edwards, and Havana coal plants. Good locations, but they won’t get to it until 2025 — 10 times longer than Southern Australia.

More concerning are the actions of several major “power players” in Illinois. Next month I’ll show how they have contributed to our electricity shortage. For now, let’s paraphrase Vladimir Zelensky who, when offered safe passage out of war-torn Ukraine, responded:

“I need ammunition, not a ride.” Well, Illinois needs megawatts, not a task force.

References

NERC. 2022 (May). 2022 Summer Reliability Assessment. North American Electric Reliability Corporation; https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf

PEI. 2022 (Jun 3). Retiring Illinois coal plants awarded funding to add energy storage. Power Engineering International; https://www.powerengineeringint.com/energy-storage/retiring-illinois-coal-plants-awarded-funding-to-add-energy-storage/

Parkinson, Giles. 2017 (Dec 19). Tesla big battery outsmarts lumbering coal units after Loy Yang trips. Renew Economy; https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-outsmarts-lumbering-coal-units-after-loy-yang-trips-70003/

Spector, Julian. 2020 (Sep 1). How Did Energy Storage Perform in Its Biggest Test So Far? California’s batteries performed well during the recent heat wave. There just weren’t enough of them. Green Tech Media; https://www.greentechmedia.com/squared/storage-plus/how-did-energy-storage-perform-in-its-biggest-test-so-far

Walton, Robert. 2022 (Apr 29). MISO prepares for ‘worst-case scenarios,’ heads into summer with insufficient firm generation. Utility Dive; https://www.utilitydive.com/news/miso-prepares-for-worst-case-scenarios-heads-into-summer-with-insufficie/622932/