So the first Trump trial is history. It came down to whether the jury believed Michael Cohen that Trump paid Stormy Daniels to protect his candidacy rather than his marriage.

At deadline time we didn’t have a verdict, though the odds favored guilty if for no other reason than Trumpian patterns. But while interesting and big on theater, did this trial make much difference? Sure, it is important Trump be held accountable if he is indeed guilty. Perhaps a guilty verdict would convince some fence sitters to vote Democrat.

However, would a guilty verdict prevent Trump from continuing his campaign or from holding the office of President of the United States?

The short answer is no. Nothing in the U.S. Constitution prohibits a convicted criminal from holding office. So, if he wins, the Great Embarrassment will resume. Lord only knows what will happen to our democracy, what the future of our country holds.

That’s why it’s important we pay attention to the upcoming debates, with the first scheduled in just a few weeks on June 27. The candidates need to be made to put aside bluster and insults and give real answers, real plans for what they will do to benefits all Americans and let the voters make an informed decision.

Don’t listen to empty promises or absurd claims, such as Trump claiming the reason the stock markets are setting records is because investors are anticipating his return to the White House. Trump had to say something like that when he was asked what happened to his prediction that the stock markets would collapse under a Joe Biden presidency.

Not only did that not happen, but many other key components of economic measurement have done quite well the past few years, such as continued unemployment of under 4 percent and high job growth.

And yet, as pundits point out every day, it’s not the stock prices consumers (meaning voters) watch; rather it’s gas prices and grocery bills and the like. Presidents are often held responsible for such things. That’s why this election is going to be close. And it’s why voters need to pay attention.

Yellow marker

More than 20 years ago, the late David Vaughn made a prediction that was quite surprising: that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would one day surpass 20,000.

Vaughn, the founder of the Peoria investment firm bearing his name, said this to a former colleague shortly after the Dow reached 10,000. Other stocks experts at the time were saying they didn’t believe the Dow could ever go that high. I remember one saying that if it went much higher than 10,000 there would be “dire consequences” because he didn’t believe the investment community couldn’t sustain it.

Well, the Dow did reach 20,000. That happened in early 2017. And it didn’t stop there. It hit 30,000 in November 2020, despite a precipitous drop only months before because of COVID-19 (it had reached 29,000 just before that drop).

Then on May 16 of this year, just a few weeks ago, the Dow surpassed 40,000 for the first time. The next day it closed above that mark for the first time.

Now, the Dow is not the bellwether index it used to be, certainly not the average investor since it tracks only the 30 so-called Blue Chip stocks. As one adviser told me, it makes sense that people are paying more attention to an index that tracks more stocks that are more reasonably priced for the average investor, like the S&P 500.

Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has always meant something to the average investor in Peoria because one of the stocks that makes up the Dow is Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar stock is current trading above $350 a share, below its 52-week high of $382 but well above its 52-week low of $205. I’m quoting prices as listed on my deadline day of May 20.

There was once a time investors looked for a stock split when CAT stock reached $100 a share, which was the case for its two splits in the 1990s. But there hasn’t been a split since July 14, 2005. Will that change, with the stock now valued this high? Maybe we’ll know more after the company’s annual meeting later this month.

Anyway, what should we take from the Dow reaching record after record these days? Is it a sign that the economy is strong? Yes, but only one of several.

Should we fear there will be a major correction, which would mean a decline of 10 percent or more from the high? Experts are saying we are in a bull market because the Dow has been rising and encouraging investors for a length of time, usually two months. The market turns bearish if there is a sustained decline of 20 percent from the high.

And just how much higher can the Dow go?

I posed a couple of these questions to Bob Miller, local adviser of more than 30 years and currently with Investment Strategists at Better Banks.

“If it follows the historical returns it should be 80,000 by 2034,” he said. I think he caught the incredulity of my tone because he added, “This is why it’s important to not worry about the short-term ups and downs. Invest, don’t trade.”

Now Bob does have that same optimistic attitude most stock advisers have, but he also has always believed in investing for the long term rather than chasing hot (and often riskier) stocks. When I asked whether he believed we were in for a correction he said the real question people should ask is, “why should I care about the market correcting when I should be more worried about missing out on the long term growth it has historically provided? Someone once said, I just don’t know who, that more money is lost in anticipation of a correction than in the correction itself, meaning missing out on the ‘up’ move because you’re expecting a correction that rarely happens.”

The bottom line, he said, is that no one knows if or when a correction may happen and that it is irrelevant if one is investing for the long term.

That also makes sense.