In the 1980s, cynics and other smart-alecks blasted Peoria’s economic prospects by quipping, “Will the last one to leave Peoria turn out the lights?”

Such a bumper-sticker attitude about Illinois is too common now, as too many in media keep repeating the judgments that many people are fleeing the Land of Lincoln.

It’s a wonder there aren’t billboards asking 21st century residents to leave their keys behind when they abandon the rest of us.

It’s confusing because sources often are ideological or commercial interests with stakes in complaining in general or moving in particular. Also, the assertion can be wrong or incomplete according to reviews by the U.S. Census Bureau and academic studies such as a recent report from the Project for Middle Class Renewal at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the Illinois Economic Policy Institute (ILEPI). Plus, such data is frequently updated to be current and reliable.

It’s too typical especially for mid- and small-market newsrooms to run with a summary repeating the old, tired refrain. Media stories chronically stress a “mass migration” angle, usually blaming property taxes, crime and housing costs (but very rarely winter).

Suspect sources

Sources frequently cited are frankly suspect, such as the “Annual National Moving Study” released by United Van Lines or the yearly “Moving Migration Report” from North American Moving Services / North American Van Lines. That almost seems like the U.S. Surgeon General relying on advice from the tobacco lobby on the effects of cigarette safety, or the EPA seeking counsel on clean air from a coal company.

Also, political voices with vague names can offer conclusions that please their backers. Wirepoints, a conservative think tank that interprets Internal Revenue Service statistics, was used in a commentary on Illinois’ “exodus of residents” by Paul Vallas. The former CEO of school districts in Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans who twice unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Chicago, Vallas is now an “adviser” for the conservative Illinois Policy Institute. It promotes conservative points of view in guest essays and issues studies that are backed by contributors ranging from former Gov. Bruce Rauner and the Cato Institute to the Koch and Uihlein families, according to ProPublica and other news organizations.

Pushing perspectives in opinion pages is time-honored discourse, but in news stories it’s close to the unfortunate trend of exaggeration and misinformation, used less to inform or even convince the public of something than to shape people into doubting everything.

Inside the numbers

Population-loss stories can be incomplete, too, rarely including other factors that affect change, most notably birth rates. For instance, the most recent report from the National Center for Health Statistics says Illinois’ birth rate is 51.8 (an estimate of the number of children born to a group of 1,000 women), and 128,000 annual births. That’s 11% lower than five years earlier, when the birth rate was 57.5 and 144,000 newborns.

In 2022, the Census corrected its data to show Illinois had not lost population, but gained — to 13 million, a 2% undercount.

“This is really good news for Illinois,” Civic Federation President Laurence Msall told the Chicago Sun-Times. “So many of our formulas are based on population.”

The Census had inadvertently missed 250,000 residents, which is akin to omitting Peoria, Fulton and Knox counties entirely.

‘Greatly exagerrated’

A year later, the 2023 UIUC-ILEPI study — a 26-page report titled “A Decade of Illinois’ Migration Patterns” — used information from the Census and the Illinois Department of Revenue to conclude, “Reports of Illinois’ population decline have been greatly exaggerated,” ILEPI economist Frank Manzo IV told Robert McCoppin of the Chicago Tribune.

“Data show the Illinois population has been stable,” he added. “Illinois is not suffering the mass exodus that some have claimed.”

In the report. Manzo and co-author Bob Bruno, a UIUC Professor in the School of Labor and Employment Relations and Director of the Project for Middle Class Renewal, say most people moving from Illinois were from downstate and had incomes low enough to be eligible for government aid, with less than half owning homes (and therefore not paying property taxes). The age group that lost the most residents was those 55 and older.

Upward mobility

Bruno and Manzo’s work shows the quality as much as the quantity of people arriving in the state, too. From 2013 to 2022, new residents were better educated and reported higher incomes. The state had a 52% increase in taxpayers earning $100,000 to $500,000, and an 80% uptick in taxpayers earning even more.

“Illinois added more than 200,000 taxpayers last decade,” they wrote.

Bruno said, “People who move, whether into Illinois or out of Illinois, are more likely to be seeking upward economic mobility, either through job opportunities or educational pursuits. They are less likely to be concerned with things like the estate tax, property taxes, or the corporate income tax.

“It’s going to appeal to businesses, college graduates, people working in emerging sectors,” he continued. “That’s an optimistic view of where the state is heading.”

Last year, the state announced that the Census — which keeps updating its findings to be accurate — conceded another undercount: More than 46,000 people living in group homes. That surpassed the decline of 33,000 the bureau reported months before.

Besides neglected updates, overlooked subjectivity and ignored context, future concerns include whether the Census, the National Center for Health Statistics, the Internal Revenue Service — any federal agencies led by Trump loyalists instead of less political figures and civil servants — will be as impartial and forthcoming as they have been.